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不安と猜疑を煽り続けるイギリス国民投票:ボリスは終わった?!

2016.06.27
今朝、FBのニュース・フィードでガーディアンのウェブに挙げられたコメントの一つが話題になっていることを知った。

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/25/brexit-live-emergency-meetings-eu-uk-leave-vote#comment-77205935

If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

 これが現実に近い状況なのかどうかの判断には僕にはできない。しかし、読んでいて確かに説得力はあるなと。ガーディアンの読者コメントを読む際、「recommendation」の数が多いコメントは賛否が分かれるとしても注目されているコメント。

 このコメントで書かれている以外に、実際の報道で、勝利宣言をして以来、離脱派がかなりトーン・ダウンしているのは確かな様だ。例えば、これ。

Iain Duncan Smith backtracks on leave side's £350m NHS claim
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/eu-referendum-brexit-vote-leave-iain-duncan-smith-nhs

 キャンペイン期間中、離脱派が煽った一つは、3億5千万ポンドが毎週、欧州連合に支払われているが、離脱すればその金をNHSにまわすというもの。結果発表後、誰一人としてそのことを語ることを避けている。

 今現在思うのは、完全な離脱を前にこのような状況を嫌悪した欧州出身の移民が一斉にイギリスを離れ、更なる混乱になるのかなと。

 日本のメディアに望むこと。今回の騒動による国際金融市場の行方だけでなく、急速に進んでいる円高によって日本の市井の人々が受け入れなければならない変化を判り易く報道して欲しい。昨日家族と話した時、今、国際金融市場で起きていることから、円高によって日本の輸出企業や生産業への影響、それによる景気の更なる停滞があるかもなんてことを説明した。

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